July 14 became the big day both for the people of Iran and the whole international community, as Hassan Rouhani made a sensation by winning the presidential run. 50.7 % voted as early as during the first poll.
Note: The new President of the Islamic Republic of Iran Hassan Rouhani was born in the city of Sahra on November 12, 1948; he’s of the Persian origin.
Rouhani started religious studies in 1960, first at Semnan Seminary before moving on to the Qom Seminary in 1961. In addition, he studied modern courses, and was admitted to the University of Tehran in 1969, and obtained his bachelor's degree in judicial law in 1972. Rouhani continued his studies at Glasgow Caledonian University in Scotland, graduating with an MPhil degree in 1995 for a thesis entitled "The Islamic legislative power with reference to the Iranian experience" and a PhD degree in Law in 1999 for a thesis titled "The Flexibility of Shariah (Islamic Law) with reference to the Iranian experience". He has been a member of the Assembly of Experts since 1999, member of the Expediency Council since 1991, member of the Supreme National Security Council since 1989, and head of the Center for Strategic Research since 1992.
As a young cleric Hassan Rouhani started his political activities by following Ayatollah Khomeini during the beginning of the Iranian Islamic movement and became his close associate.
As narrated by the Iranian Analyst of the International Crisis Group Ali Vaez to “Reuters”, “Rouhani is the regime’s insider. In contrast to Mohammad Khatami who never occupied any governing office until he was elected the President of Iran, Rouhani never left either the governing circles or Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s suite. Besides, he’s a centrist politician with a unique capability to put up bridges. I doubt he’ll push away the opposing forces who may disrupt his reforms”.
Hassan Rouhani is viewed as reformist, but he’s rather a centrist who can unite various social groups, both western-minded youth groups and poor countrymen and ultra orthodox theologists. In summary, the new President of Iran became a kind of symbol of Iranian social unity.
Hassan Rouhani is a remarkable representative of modern Iranian political elite. He has a strong personal support within a country’s military establishment. Mr Rouhani's election has been endorsed by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei which played the crucial part in his victory. Rouhani has been one of the Khamenei minions for more than 20 years and is considered by the analysts as the most probable candidate for the role of his chosen successor.
In his post-victory TV interview Hassan Rouhani said he needed support of the nation to enact his programme focussed on preserving national pride and protecting national interests. He also characterized the election results as “a victory over extremism”.
What is the main point of the changes which took place in Iran? In our opinion it’s first of all an attempt to reboot the existing system which came under the risk of political remission due to several inner and outer factors (international sanctions first of all along with the drop in the living standards of Iranians) as a result of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s (the former President) chaotic and extremist policy every once in a while.
As the famous Russian orientalist Shamil Sultanow noted, “Iranian ruling class guided by Ali Khamenei has once again demonstrated their statecraft and ability to consolidate in politically crucial moments, leaving apart the minor contradictions”. By electing Rouhani the population didn’t vote against the islamic republic, but rather for more balanced President in his words and actions.
Rouhani is the new President for a fundamentally new political stage. He has to work out a more balanced foreign policy regarding the US, demothball the country and keep its nuclear programme at the same time. The country also needs economic reforms badly, as the Iranians’ living standards fail because of the economical sanctions of the West. And at last but not at least Rouhani has to nail down the local superpower status Iran reached earlier and at the same time
iron out existing differences and contradictions with the Arab world first of all and the Global community as a whole.
Most analysts consider making the todays regime more flexible, presentable and predictable as Rouhani’s main task. American journal “Foreign Policy” wrote that the Rouhani’s victory will not change the regime in Iran but rather change the rules of the game.
Official Washington gave positive responce to Rouhani’s election victory. The White House Chief of Staff Denis McDonough called the election results “potentially encouraging”. “There’s a great opportunity for Iran,” said McDonough, “and the people of that storied country, to have the kind of future that they would, I think, justifiably want. If he’s really interested in restoring normal relations between Iran and the rest of the world, he’s got a good opportunity to do just that. Rohani's election was a "potentially hopeful sign," and that if he lived up to his obligation "to come clean on this illicit nuclear program, he will find a partner in us”.
The newly elected President gave a press-conference on Monday, 17, where he announced his plans to hold direct dialogue with each of the six world powers (the five members of the UN Security Council (including the US) and Germany) separately, in order to clarify Iran's stance on the issue.
Iran has been the target of four rounds of UN sanctions and numerous UN Security Council resolutions calling on it to cease enrichment work. No doubt this will be the central issue of the future negotiations. Hassan Rouhani underlined:
"Our nuclear programs are completely transparent. But we are ready to show greater transparency and make clear for the whole world that the steps of the Islamic Republic of Iran are completely within international frameworks".
Within this context Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s decision to decide in favour of Hassan Rouhani is not a fluke, as the President-elect had already had successful negotiation with the same parties as a secretary of the Supreme National Security Council in 2005. As the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences leading expert Mr. Vladimir Sazhyn says, “Iran made some positive steps under the guidance of Hassan Rouhani in 2005 by stopping the uranium enrichment processes and ratifying agreement with the IAEA. But then Mahmoud Ahmadinejad came to power, the uranium enrichment was renewed and the Majlis refused to ratify the protocol”. Former Minister of Foreign Affairs of the United Kingdom John Whitaker Straw who was involved in those negotiations with Rouhani characterized him as a very skilled diplomat and politician.
We can also say that by nominating Rouhani for the presidency the Supreme Spiritual Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei sent a symbolic message for US that Iran is ready for some compromise with the US - within reasonable limits of course. This itself is and attainment, basically, as this has been Barack Obama’s strategy for the past five years - to press Iran by the means of economic warfare without “crossing the red line”, i.e. without either holding any military actions against the country or letting Israel do it.
This was quite effective as far as we can see. We suppose it is time to ease the sanctions which is up to Washington and Brussels. This will give basis for renewing the dialogue, or rather a rough bartering in the Middle Eastern affairs in general and the questions of nuclear programmes, situation in Syria, etc. in part.
But the main point is that the “wind of change” gives us hope for serious positive changes both in the Iranian society and in the region of the Middle East as a whole. The new President promised in his speech: “My government will defend the rights of the Iranian nation. We want to see less tension, and if we see goodwill, then confidence -building measures can be made”. His calls for returning to good neighbourliness and partnership promise regional stability and annealing relationships between the Shia and Sunni Muslims.
Hassan Rouhani’s elections triumph gives us hope for a certain improving in international relations and creates hopeful prospect for returning Iran to international community and cooperation.
Dr.Vyacheslav Shved, leading researcher of the Institute for World Economy and International Relations of the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) of Ukraine,
Director of the Dept. of Near East Affairs at Ukraine's National Institute for Strategic Studies,
Vice-President of the “Ukrainian Centre For Islamic Studies” NGO
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